I have been asked by many people, of varying opinions, what is going to happen next in Parliament. So, for once, I am using this column to set out the position. I will do so in as dispassionate and factual a manner as possible.

The situation is, of course, fluid. By the time this column is being read, the reader may know the outcome of the vote on the PM’s deal in the House of Commons. At the time of writing, that outcome is unknown. I shall myself be voting for the PM’s deal. But, for present purposes, I am making the most likely assumption - namely, that the PM’s deal is rejected because a large number of Conservatives (not including me) join Opposition parties in voting it down.

On that assumption, the position is that:

1) The Government will need to come to the House of Commons with a motion describing its proposed way forward; (this motion may of course describe a proposed process rather than any substantive result); the motion will be brought forward under Section 13 of the Withdrawal Act;

2) If a motion of no confidence in the Government has not been moved, or if the Opposition has not succeeded in obtaining a majority for such a no confidence motion, the Government will be in a position to carry forward its proposed plan of action, whatever that may be;

3) If the Government’s plan of action does not lead to a majority in the House of Commons voting in favour of an alternative deal, or a delay in execution of Article 50, by 29 March, then – under the Withdrawal Act – the UK will leave the EU on that date without any Withdrawal Agreement;

4) Under those circumstances, it is not possible to predict what short term consequences for trade, UK citizens in the EU, travel, energy supply or other elements of the relationship with the EU will follow; some people are relaxed about the likely scale of these consequences, others (including me) are alarmed;

5) As a result of procedural changes that a cross-party group of MPs including me have brought about in recent weeks, it is open to the House of Commons to amend the motion brought forward by the Government under section 13 of the Withdrawal Act, in such a way as to create a new framework within which the Government must act between 21 January and 29 March;

6) Some MPs (including me) will be working to establish such a framework. If the PM’s deal has been rejected, we will want to forge a cross-party majority in favour of an alternative deal with the EU, and we will want to prevent the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March;

7) Other MPs, having voted against the PM’s deal, will seek to prevent such a framework being established – in order to maximise the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on March 29;

8) This will be a topic of hot debate for the next few weeks.